Forget Exit polls – The futures markets are betting on Kerry tonight

by on November 2nd, 2004

Yesterday, President Bush held a small lead in the election predictions marketplace, where people are putting their money where their mouths are. This afternoon, possibly as a result of initial exit polling data, or possibly for reasons unknown, President Bush has lost 20 cents to Senator Kerry, making Kerry the new 70% favorite to take the election. It is still early, but as these election options near their expiration, how much stock do we put in the market versus polls? Perhaps we will know the answer tomorrow.

Michael Hussey